DB Olympics

Queries · q211 · Chief Executive Officer · week 2, night 2

Merchant refund-rate spike check, Q3 2025 vs H1 2025 baseline

“Does the refund spike Finance flagged for Q3 2025 (naming OfficeHub Nordic and Sports & Outdoor sellers) hold up at the merchant level, and is it the same story as Q4?”

Manager · asked the questionMaren OkaforChief Executive Officer. Joined two weeks ago from a European payments company. Board meeting at the end of January.
Analyst · planned the reportHannah BrooksMethodical: starts with an overview, then drills into whatever looks unusual.
Engineer · wrote the SQLOmarPragmatic: the shortest correct query, aggregates first and joins dimensions afterwards, FILTER clauses for conditional counts.

Fictional people at a fictional company, each played by a language-model agent. Who they are and what they are told

  1. A business event lands on the Chief Executive Officer's desk

    Week 2; shared with Tobias Lindqvist, Chief Financial Officer

    The board meets at the end of January and wants a clear view of unit economics: per merchant, vertical and country, what Tidewick earns and what it costs us to serve them. Which merchants are worth growing, and which cost more than they bring?

  2. Maren Okafor writes to Hannah Brooks

    The manager, at the start of week 2

    Subject: Great first week — here's where I want to go next

    Hannah,

    This was exactly the kind of grounding I needed — thank you. A few things surprised me and one big new ask from the board that I need us to lead together with Tobias.

    What surprised me / needs explaining:

    • Your fee-revenue figure (€53k trailing twelve months) and Tobias's (€93.6k for calendar 2025) don't match, and neither does your "72% from top 5, stable" concentration story line up cleanly with his "65% from top 10, declining as we add merchants." Before this goes near the board I need these reconciled into one number and one trend — I don't want finance and analytics telling different stories about the same business.
    • The refund story looks more nuanced than "refunds are creeping up broadly." Tobias's team says apparel's ~20% refund rate is just normal for the category, and the real spike this quarter came from a few smaller non-apparel merchants. I'd like your root-cause work to confirm or correct that before we flag it as a trend versus a one-off.
    • Operations found that delivery performance is almost entirely a carrier issue, not a merchant or warehouse issue — the same merchant looks great on one carrier and bad on another, and one carrier partner has clearly been underperforming since November. That changes how I think about "merchant health" — some of what looks like a merchant problem may really be a carrier problem.

    The new board ask — unit economics by merchant, vertical and country:

    The board wants to know, plainly, what we earn from serving each merchant/vertical/country and what it costs us — so we can say which parts of the business are worth leaning into and which are quietly expensive. This is bigger than one report, so here's what I think it needs, and I want you and Tobias to scope it jointly this week rather than me prescribing the method:

    • On the earnings side, we seem to have good data (processing fees, volume). Platform-plan fees are apparently missing from the warehouse — Tobias, can your team supply that separately so we're not missing a real revenue line?
    • On the cost side, I don't think we've ever assembled this: fulfillment/carrier cost, refund and return handling, support load, and the engineering reliability issues (webhook failures, the cart-reminder bug) that generate extra support tickets. Some of this may not be cleanly attributable per merchant in the data — I want an honest read on what's knowable now versus what needs to be modeled or estimated.
    • The deliverable I need by month-end: a short ranked view of which merchants/verticals/countries are clearly profitable to grow, which are marginal, and which likely cost more to serve than they return — even if the first pass is directional rather than precise.

    My questions for this week:

    1. Can you and Tobias reconcile the revenue and concentration numbers into a single, agreed figure and trend I can quote to the board without contradiction?
    2. What would it take to build even a rough cost-to-serve picture per merchant/vertical/country — and what's your honest confidence in it, given the data gaps you've already flagged (platform fees, refund-to-payout matching, carrier cost attribution)?
    3. On refunds — is the increase really concentrated in a few merchants/verticals as Tobias's team suggests, or is it broader? I want to know whether this is a few accounts to manage or a trend to worry about.
    4. Separately, flag for me which of our top accounts (like Castell Fasteners, with its traffic drop and unpaid invoices) look at risk — I want a short "accounts to watch" list alongside the unit economics work, not buried inside it.

    Let's talk briefly before you lock in this week's requests so we spend the slots on the unit economics scoping rather than re-running what we already mostly know.

    Thanks, Maren

    A note from the Chief Financial Officer, Tobias Lindqvist

    Note to Hannah Brooks

    Hannah — a few things from the finance side as you scope the board unit-economics piece:

    1. What does each merchant actually net us, after processing costs? We only see the economics clearly once payouts are broken into gross, fee, and net — a merchant with huge volume but thin margin on our fee side could look better on revenue than it really is on contribution.
    2. How exposed are we on currency? We earn and hold balances in many merchant currencies against a EUR view for the board — I want to know where FX swings could meaningfully move the 2025 numbers or the 2026 budget.
    3. Who's slow to pay us, and where? For the B2B wholesalers especially, I'd like a sense of outstanding receivables and how long they're taking to settle — that's a cost of serving them that doesn't show up in the headline revenue.

    If there's room, a rough read on how refund patterns differ by vertical or country would help round out the "which merchants are worth growing" question.

    Happy to talk through before Friday's memo.

    — Tobias

  3. Hannah Brooks plans the night

    The analyst · week 2, night 2, request 1 of 3

    Night 1 results: the currency breakdown report confirms my €53,186 figure to the penny (sums exactly), with no currency-specific anomaly — solid evidence that Finance's €93,583 has a methodology bug on their side, which I'll bring to a joint session with Tobias's team rather than keep guessing blindly at their query. On refunds: my Q4 2025 merchant breakdown shows our two biggest Apparel merchants (Cragsley, Marrowby & Vane) actually improved slightly, and the spike is driven by small long-tail merchants (Fell & Fjell, Bytefield, Brick & Bobbin) with big % jumps but tiny order counts — consistent with Kofi's "concentrated, not broad" read. But Kofi specifically named Q3 2025 and OfficeHub Nordic, and my data shows OfficeHub Nordic at 0% refund rate in Q4 — so I need the Q3-specific breakdown to confirm or correct his named examples before this goes to Maren as settled. Separately, the risk snapshot surfaced a much bigger receivables problem than Castell Fasteners: Kontor24 Bürobedarf has €116.7k unpaid (8x Castell's), and the biggest unpaid balances are all B2B wholesalers — directly matching Tobias's receivables question. Tonight: (1) redo the refund check on Kofi's actual Q3 window to nail the root-cause question, (2) a receivables-aging report to answer Tobias's "who's slow to pay" question and deepen the watch-list, (3) start the unit-economics groundwork with a cost-driver volume inventory per merchant (shipping, returns, refunds, tickets, webhook failures) — the measurable building blocks Tobias and I will need to assign real costs to.

    Merchant refund-rate spike check, Q3 2025 vs H1 2025 baseline
    Question
    Does the refund spike Finance flagged for Q3 2025 (naming OfficeHub Nordic and Sports & Outdoor sellers) hold up at the merchant level, and is it the same story as Q4?
    One row per
    merchant (tenant)
    Columns
    • merchant name
    • vertical
    • refund rate Q3 2025 (%)
    • refund rate H1 2025 baseline (%)
    • change vs own baseline (percentage points)
    • refund amount Q3 2025 (EUR)
    • order count Q3 2025
  4. Omar writes the SQL

    The engineer · 1 dry run on the empty schema, then the submission

    Dry run 1 · STATUS: COMPILES (dry run on the empty schema, no data read)
    WITH q3_refunds AS (
      SELECT pr.tenant_id,
             SUM(pr.amount / er.rate) AS refund_amount_eur
      FROM payment_refunds pr
      JOIN exchange_rates er
        ON er.base_code = 'EUR'
       AND er.quote_code = pr.currency_code
       AND er.as_of = pr.processed_at::date
      WHERE pr.status = 'succeeded'
        AND pr.processed_at >= DATE '2025-07-01'
        AND pr.processed_at < DATE '2025-10-01'
      GROUP BY pr.tenant_id
    ),
    q3_payments AS (
      SELECT p.tenant_id,
             SUM(p.amount / er.rate) AS captured_amount_eur
      FROM payments p
      JOIN exchange_rates er
        ON er.base_code = 'EUR'
       AND er.quote_code = p.currency_code
       AND er.as_of = p.captured_at::date
      WHERE p.status IN ('captured','partially_refunded','refunded')
        AND p.captured_at >= DATE '2025-07-01'
        AND p.captured_at < DATE '2025-10-01'
      GROUP BY p.tenant_id
    ),
    h1_refunds AS (
      SELECT pr.tenant_id,
             SUM(pr.amount / er.rate) AS refund_amount_eur
      FROM payment_refunds pr
      JOIN exchange_rates er
        ON er.base_code = 'EUR'
       AND er.quote_code = pr.currency_code
       AND er.as_of = pr.processed_at::date
      WHERE pr.status = 'succeeded'
        AND pr.processed_at >= DATE '2025-01-01'
        AND pr.processed_at < DATE '2025-07-01'
      GROUP BY pr.tenant_id
    ),
    h1_payments AS (
      SELECT p.tenant_id,
             SUM(p.amount / er.rate) AS captured_amount_eur
      FROM payments p
      JOIN exchange_rates er
        ON er.base_code = 'EUR'
       AND er.quote_code = p.currency_code
       AND er.as_of = p.captured_at::date
      WHERE p.status IN ('captured','partially_refunded','refunded')
        AND p.captured_at >= DATE '2025-01-01'
        AND p.captured_at < DATE '2025-07-01'
      GROUP BY p.tenant_id
    ),
    q3_orders AS (
      SELECT tenant_id, COUNT(*) AS order_count
      FROM orders
      WHERE placed_at >= DATE '2025-07-01'
        AND placed_at < DATE '2025-10-01'
      GROUP BY tenant_id
    )
    SELECT
      t.name AS merchant_name,
      t.industry AS vertical,
      ROUND(100.0 * COALESCE(qr.refund_amount_eur,0) / NULLIF(qp.captured_amount_eur,0), 2) AS refund_rate_q3_pct,
      ROUND(100.0 * COALESCE(hr.refund_amount_eur,0) / NULLIF(hp.captured_amount_eur,0), 2) AS refund_rate_h1_baseline_pct,
      ROUND(
        (100.0 * COALESCE(qr.refund_amount_eur,0) / NULLIF(qp.captured_amount_eur,0))
        - (100.0 * COALESCE(hr.refund_amount_eur,0) / NULLIF(hp.captured_amount_eur,0))
      , 2) AS change_vs_baseline_pp,
      ROUND(COALESCE(qr.refund_amount_eur,0), 2) AS refund_amount_q3_eur,
      qo.order_count AS order_count_q3
    FROM q3_orders qo
    JOIN tenants t ON t.id = qo.tenant_id
    LEFT JOIN q3_refunds qr ON qr.tenant_id = qo.tenant_id
    LEFT JOIN q3_payments qp ON qp.tenant_id = qo.tenant_id
    LEFT JOIN h1_refunds hr ON hr.tenant_id = qo.tenant_id
    LEFT JOIN h1_payments hp ON hp.tenant_id = qo.tenant_id
    WHERE qo.order_count >= 10
    ORDER BY change_vs_baseline_pp DESC NULLS LAST, refund_amount_q3_eur DESC, merchant_name ASC

    “Query compiles and matches the requested grain and columns. Submitting.”

    Submitted · the SQL of the last dry run, unchanged · Submitted to tonight's batch. Your work on this request is done.

    “Submitted. Summary of what was built: - Grain: one row per merchant (tenant), restricted to merchants with ≥10 orders placed in Q3 2025. - Method: refund rate = 100 × (succeeded payment_refunds, EUR-converted, processed_at in quarter) ÷ (captured/partially_refunded/refunded payments, EUR-converted, captured_at in quarter), attributed by tenant_id directly on those two tables — same approach as the Q4 report, applied to Q3 2025 vs. the H1 2025 baseline. - FX: each amount divided by the same-day EUR→currency rate from exchange_rates. - Columns: merchant name, vertical (tenants.industry), Q3 2025 refund rate %, H1 2025 baseline rate %, change in percentage points, Q3 refund amount (EUR), Q3 order count. - Order: change vs. baseline descending, tie-break by Q3 refund amount descending, then name for determinism. Noted in the submit comment: "vertical" is sourced from tenants.industry (no separate vertical field exists), and the ≥10-orders filter uses the count of orders placed in Q3 2025.”

  5. The report comes back overnight

    As Hannah Brooks saw it, from the small dataset the agents worked on

    merchant_name                 | vertical                  | refund_rate_q3_pct | refund_rate_h1_baseline_pct | change_vs_baseline_pp | refund_amount_q3_eur | order_count_q3
    ------------------------------+---------------------------+--------------------+-----------------------------+-----------------------+----------------------+---------------
    OfficeHub Nordic              | Office Supplies (B2B)     |              20.98 |                        2.99 |                 17.99 |             23267.74 |             45
    Saffron & Sage                | Beauty                    |               9.62 |                         0.0 |                  9.62 |               183.14 |             25
    Nordic Bloom Cosmetics        | Beauty                    |               12.2 |                        4.59 |                  7.61 |               591.12 |             38
    Petalcourt Beauty             | Beauty                    |              11.63 |                        4.03 |                   7.6 |              1754.09 |            164
    Kayak Corner                  | Sports & Outdoor          |              14.12 |                        8.78 |                  5.34 |               828.54 |             24
    Feather & Fin                 | Pet Supplies              |               3.95 |                        0.56 |                  3.39 |               104.85 |             51
    Honeycomb Larder              | Food & Coffee             |                4.2 |                        0.93 |                  3.27 |               231.58 |            149
    Kibblewick                    | Pet Supplies              |                2.0 |                        0.69 |                  1.31 |               153.25 |            166
    Juniper Apothecary            | Beauty                    |               7.53 |                        6.49 |                  1.04 |               242.06 |             31
    Fennel & Flint                | Home & Living             |               7.85 |                        7.24 |                  0.61 |               910.97 |             75
    Tail Wag Supply               | Pet Supplies              |               2.34 |                        2.39 |                 -0.05 |                32.83 |             23
    Castell Fasteners             | Industrial Supplies (B2B) |                0.0 |                        0.34 |                 -0.34 |                  0.0 |             37
    Deskline Supplies             | Office Supplies (B2B)     |                0.0 |                        0.46 |                 -0.46 |                  0.0 |             18
    Oakhurst Tailoring            | Apparel & Footwear        |              13.06 |                       14.01 |                 -0.95 |               518.28 |             37
    The Balm Room                 | Beauty                    |                4.5 |                        5.53 |                 -1.03 |               154.76 |             23
    Grind Collective              | Food & Coffee             |                0.0 |                         1.1 |                  -1.1 |                  0.0 |            279
    Fell & Fjell                  | Sports & Outdoor          |               2.61 |                         4.1 |                 -1.48 |               382.12 |             22
    Coastline Interiors           | Home & Living             |               7.04 |                        8.77 |                 -1.73 |                184.7 |             25
    Cinder Peak Sports Co.        | Sports & Outdoor          |               9.28 |                       12.54 |                 -3.26 |              2712.96 |             75
    Cragsley Outfitters           | Apparel & Footwear        |              22.82 |                        26.1 |                 -3.27 |             28724.77 |            762
    Purrfect Pantry               | Pet Supplies              |                0.0 |                        3.44 |                 -3.44 |                  0.0 |             13
    Thistlecombe                  | Apparel & Footwear        |              21.64 |                       25.16 |                 -3.52 |               561.43 |             25
    Marrowby & Vane               | Apparel & Footwear        |              20.24 |                        24.4 |                 -4.16 |             10088.68 |            369
    Willow & Wren                 | Home & Living             |               6.22 |                       13.31 |                 -7.09 |               233.03 |             15
    Lamplight Living              | Home & Living             |               0.66 |                       11.98 |                -11.32 |                12.77 |             15
    Velvet Ash                    | Apparel & Footwear        |              19.65 |                       38.05 |                 -18.4 |               773.06 |             29
    Ampfeld Elektronik            | Consumer Electronics      |               NULL |                        NULL |                  NULL |                  0.0 |             80
    Atelier Nouveau               | Apparel & Footwear        |               NULL |                        NULL |                  NULL |                  0.0 |             18
    Ballycorran Industrial Supply | Industrial Supplies (B2B) |               NULL |                        NULL |                  NULL |                  0.0 |             79
    Basecamp Nord                 | Sports & Outdoor          |               NULL |                        NULL |                  NULL |                  0.0 |             12
    Brennquell Kaffee             | Food & Coffee             |               NULL |                        NULL |                  NULL |                  0.0 |            980
    Brewline Coffee               | Food & Coffee             |               NULL |                        NULL |                  NULL |                  0.0 |             10
    Chocolaterie Mireille         | Food & Coffee             |               NULL |                        NULL |                  NULL |                  0.0 |             32
    Gratlinie Outdoor             | Sports & Outdoor          |               NULL |                        NULL |                  NULL |                  0.0 |             51
    Hanse Industriebedarf         | Industrial Supplies (B2B) |               NULL |                        NULL |                  NULL |                  0.0 |             15
    Hautnah                       | Beauty                    |               NULL |                        NULL |                  NULL |                  0.0 |             13
    Hound Hamper                  | Pet Supplies              |               NULL |                        NULL |                  NULL |                  0.0 |             11
    Kettle & Key                  | Home & Living             |               NULL |                        NULL |                  NULL |                  0.0 |             12
    Kontor24 Bürobedarf           | Office Supplies (B2B)     |               NULL |                        NULL |                  NULL |                  0.0 |             57
    Linden & Loom                 | Home & Living             |               NULL |                        NULL |                  NULL |                  0.0 |             45
    Lumen Collective              | Apparel & Footwear        |               NULL |                        NULL |                  NULL |                  0.0 |             11
    Maison Clair                  | Apparel & Footwear        |               NULL |                        NULL |                  NULL |                  0.0 |             10
    Midland Safety Wear           | Industrial Supplies (B2B) |               NULL |                        NULL |                  NULL |                  0.0 |             45
    Mirelle                       | Beauty                    |               NULL |                        NULL |                  NULL |                  0.0 |             15
    Noordzee Surfwear             | Apparel & Footwear        |               NULL |                        NULL |                  NULL |                  0.0 |             16
    Ostwind Mode                  | Apparel & Footwear        |               NULL |                        NULL |                  NULL |                  0.0 |             22
    Pfotenglück                   | Pet Supplies              |               NULL |                        NULL |                  NULL |                  0.0 |             26
    Polder Packaging              | Industrial Supplies (B2B) |               NULL |                        NULL |                  NULL |                  0.0 |             18
    Ridgeback Gear                | Sports & Outdoor          |               NULL |                        NULL |                  NULL |                  0.0 |             28
    Rue Lafayette Studio          | Apparel & Footwear        |               NULL |                        NULL |                  NULL |                  0.0 |             44
    (58 rows, first 50 printed)
  6. What came of it

    The memo and the queries that followed; links found by title, so inferred

    It builds on:

  7. It becomes benchmark query q211

    Changed only where the benchmark needs the same result on every system

    • spellingcast (4×)
    • determinismtie-breaker: tenant names are not unique
    • numericsdocs/NUMERICS.md: rounding removed; results keep full precision
    • numericsdocs/NUMERICS.md: x / exchange rate cast to NUMERIC(18,6) (4×)
    • made explicita selected t.col gets AS col, its standard name made explicit (4×)
    • determinismthe standard leaves the place of NULLs in a sort to the implementation: NULLS LAST ascending, NULLS FIRST descending, as in the reference results (3×)
    The benchmark text, against the submitted SQL
    WITH q3_refunds AS (  SELECT pr.tenant_id,         SUM(pr.amount / er.rate) AS refund_amount_eur  SELECT pr.tenant_id AS tenant_id,         SUM(CAST(pr.amount / er.rate AS NUMERIC(18,6))) AS refund_amount_eur  FROM payment_refunds pr  JOIN exchange_rates er    ON er.base_code = 'EUR'   AND er.quote_code = pr.currency_code   AND er.as_of = pr.processed_at::date   AND er.as_of = CAST(pr.processed_at AS date)  WHERE pr.status = 'succeeded'    AND pr.processed_at >= DATE '2025-07-01'    AND pr.processed_at < DATE '2025-10-01'  GROUP BY pr.tenant_id),q3_payments AS (  SELECT p.tenant_id,         SUM(p.amount / er.rate) AS captured_amount_eur  SELECT p.tenant_id AS tenant_id,         SUM(CAST(p.amount / er.rate AS NUMERIC(18,6))) AS captured_amount_eur  FROM payments p  JOIN exchange_rates er    ON er.base_code = 'EUR'   AND er.quote_code = p.currency_code   AND er.as_of = p.captured_at::date   AND er.as_of = CAST(p.captured_at AS date)  WHERE p.status IN ('captured','partially_refunded','refunded')    AND p.captured_at >= DATE '2025-07-01'    AND p.captured_at < DATE '2025-10-01'  GROUP BY p.tenant_id),h1_refunds AS (  SELECT pr.tenant_id,         SUM(pr.amount / er.rate) AS refund_amount_eur  SELECT pr.tenant_id AS tenant_id,         SUM(CAST(pr.amount / er.rate AS NUMERIC(18,6))) AS refund_amount_eur  FROM payment_refunds pr  JOIN exchange_rates er    ON er.base_code = 'EUR'   AND er.quote_code = pr.currency_code   AND er.as_of = pr.processed_at::date   AND er.as_of = CAST(pr.processed_at AS date)  WHERE pr.status = 'succeeded'    AND pr.processed_at >= DATE '2025-01-01'    AND pr.processed_at < DATE '2025-07-01'  GROUP BY pr.tenant_id),h1_payments AS (  SELECT p.tenant_id,         SUM(p.amount / er.rate) AS captured_amount_eur  SELECT p.tenant_id AS tenant_id,         SUM(CAST(p.amount / er.rate AS NUMERIC(18,6))) AS captured_amount_eur  FROM payments p  JOIN exchange_rates er    ON er.base_code = 'EUR'   AND er.quote_code = p.currency_code   AND er.as_of = p.captured_at::date   AND er.as_of = CAST(p.captured_at AS date)  WHERE p.status IN ('captured','partially_refunded','refunded')    AND p.captured_at >= DATE '2025-01-01'    AND p.captured_at < DATE '2025-07-01'  GROUP BY p.tenant_id),q3_orders AS (  SELECT tenant_id, COUNT(*) AS order_count  FROM orders  WHERE placed_at >= DATE '2025-07-01'    AND placed_at < DATE '2025-10-01'  GROUP BY tenant_id)SELECT  t.name AS merchant_name,  t.industry AS vertical,  ROUND(100.0 * COALESCE(qr.refund_amount_eur,0) / NULLIF(qp.captured_amount_eur,0), 2) AS refund_rate_q3_pct,  ROUND(100.0 * COALESCE(hr.refund_amount_eur,0) / NULLIF(hp.captured_amount_eur,0), 2) AS refund_rate_h1_baseline_pct,  ROUND(    (100.0 * COALESCE(qr.refund_amount_eur,0) / NULLIF(qp.captured_amount_eur,0))    - (100.0 * COALESCE(hr.refund_amount_eur,0) / NULLIF(hp.captured_amount_eur,0))  , 2) AS change_vs_baseline_pp,  ROUND(COALESCE(qr.refund_amount_eur,0), 2) AS refund_amount_q3_eur,  100.0 * COALESCE(qr.refund_amount_eur,0) / NULLIF(qp.captured_amount_eur,0) AS refund_rate_q3_pct,  100.0 * COALESCE(hr.refund_amount_eur,0) / NULLIF(hp.captured_amount_eur,0) AS refund_rate_h1_baseline_pct,  (100.0 * COALESCE(qr.refund_amount_eur,0) / NULLIF(qp.captured_amount_eur,0))  - (100.0 * COALESCE(hr.refund_amount_eur,0) / NULLIF(hp.captured_amount_eur,0)) AS change_vs_baseline_pp,  COALESCE(qr.refund_amount_eur,0) AS refund_amount_q3_eur,  qo.order_count AS order_count_q3FROM q3_orders qoJOIN tenants t ON t.id = qo.tenant_idLEFT JOIN q3_refunds qr ON qr.tenant_id = qo.tenant_idLEFT JOIN q3_payments qp ON qp.tenant_id = qo.tenant_idLEFT JOIN h1_refunds hr ON hr.tenant_id = qo.tenant_idLEFT JOIN h1_payments hp ON hp.tenant_id = qo.tenant_idWHERE qo.order_count >= 10ORDER BY change_vs_baseline_pp DESC NULLS LAST, refund_amount_q3_eur DESC, merchant_name ASCORDER BY change_vs_baseline_pp DESC NULLS LAST, refund_amount_q3_eur DESC NULLS FIRST, merchant_name ASC NULLS LAST, t.id ASC NULLS LAST
    WITH q3_refunds AS (
      SELECT pr.tenant_id AS tenant_id,
             SUM(CAST(pr.amount / er.rate AS NUMERIC(18,6))) AS refund_amount_eur
      FROM payment_refunds pr
      JOIN exchange_rates er
        ON er.base_code = 'EUR'
       AND er.quote_code = pr.currency_code
       AND er.as_of = CAST(pr.processed_at AS date)
      WHERE pr.status = 'succeeded'
        AND pr.processed_at >= DATE '2025-07-01'
        AND pr.processed_at < DATE '2025-10-01'
      GROUP BY pr.tenant_id
    ),
    q3_payments AS (
      SELECT p.tenant_id AS tenant_id,
             SUM(CAST(p.amount / er.rate AS NUMERIC(18,6))) AS captured_amount_eur
      FROM payments p
      JOIN exchange_rates er
        ON er.base_code = 'EUR'
       AND er.quote_code = p.currency_code
       AND er.as_of = CAST(p.captured_at AS date)
      WHERE p.status IN ('captured','partially_refunded','refunded')
        AND p.captured_at >= DATE '2025-07-01'
        AND p.captured_at < DATE '2025-10-01'
      GROUP BY p.tenant_id
    ),
    h1_refunds AS (
      SELECT pr.tenant_id AS tenant_id,
             SUM(CAST(pr.amount / er.rate AS NUMERIC(18,6))) AS refund_amount_eur
      FROM payment_refunds pr
      JOIN exchange_rates er
        ON er.base_code = 'EUR'
       AND er.quote_code = pr.currency_code
       AND er.as_of = CAST(pr.processed_at AS date)
      WHERE pr.status = 'succeeded'
        AND pr.processed_at >= DATE '2025-01-01'
        AND pr.processed_at < DATE '2025-07-01'
      GROUP BY pr.tenant_id
    ),
    h1_payments AS (
      SELECT p.tenant_id AS tenant_id,
             SUM(CAST(p.amount / er.rate AS NUMERIC(18,6))) AS captured_amount_eur
      FROM payments p
      JOIN exchange_rates er
        ON er.base_code = 'EUR'
       AND er.quote_code = p.currency_code
       AND er.as_of = CAST(p.captured_at AS date)
      WHERE p.status IN ('captured','partially_refunded','refunded')
        AND p.captured_at >= DATE '2025-01-01'
        AND p.captured_at < DATE '2025-07-01'
      GROUP BY p.tenant_id
    ),
    q3_orders AS (
      SELECT tenant_id, COUNT(*) AS order_count
      FROM orders
      WHERE placed_at >= DATE '2025-07-01'
        AND placed_at < DATE '2025-10-01'
      GROUP BY tenant_id
    )
    SELECT
      t.name AS merchant_name,
      t.industry AS vertical,
      100.0 * COALESCE(qr.refund_amount_eur,0) / NULLIF(qp.captured_amount_eur,0) AS refund_rate_q3_pct,
      100.0 * COALESCE(hr.refund_amount_eur,0) / NULLIF(hp.captured_amount_eur,0) AS refund_rate_h1_baseline_pct,
      (100.0 * COALESCE(qr.refund_amount_eur,0) / NULLIF(qp.captured_amount_eur,0))
      - (100.0 * COALESCE(hr.refund_amount_eur,0) / NULLIF(hp.captured_amount_eur,0)) AS change_vs_baseline_pp,
      COALESCE(qr.refund_amount_eur,0) AS refund_amount_q3_eur,
      qo.order_count AS order_count_q3
    FROM q3_orders qo
    JOIN tenants t ON t.id = qo.tenant_id
    LEFT JOIN q3_refunds qr ON qr.tenant_id = qo.tenant_id
    LEFT JOIN q3_payments qp ON qp.tenant_id = qo.tenant_id
    LEFT JOIN h1_refunds hr ON hr.tenant_id = qo.tenant_id
    LEFT JOIN h1_payments hp ON hp.tenant_id = qo.tenant_id
    WHERE qo.order_count >= 10
    ORDER BY change_vs_baseline_pp DESC NULLS LAST, refund_amount_q3_eur DESC NULLS FIRST, merchant_name ASC NULLS LAST, t.id ASC NULLS LAST
    10 ms100 ms1 sHyper76.5 msDuckDB23.7 msGizmoSQL31.2 msclickhouse_brew319 msFirebolterrorDataFusion145 msClickHouseerror
    • Firebolt{ "errors": [ { "description": "Line 3, Column 29: Operations between decimals with different precision and scale is not supported at the moment. Explicitly cast one of the decimals to other decimal precision and scale." } ], "query": { "query_id": "9f6d121c-cbb7-4847-b550-317fa6406a98", "query_labe
    • ClickHouseCode: 69. DB::Exception: Decimal result's scale is less than argument's one: while executing function divide on arguments __table5.amount Decimal(14, 4) Decimal64(size = 0), __table6.rate Decimal(12, 6) Decimal64(size = 0). (ARGUMENT_OUT_OF_BOUND)
  8. Everything, as recorded

    The agents' own records, as the role play wrote them; only the personal data of the person who ran it is redacted

    Omar's whole session, 7 turns
    • The request, as Omar received it
      Report request from Hannah Brooks (analyst for the Chief Executive Officer):
      
      Title: Merchant refund-rate spike check, Q3 2025 vs H1 2025 baseline
      Question: Does the refund spike Finance flagged for Q3 2025 (naming OfficeHub Nordic and Sports & Outdoor sellers) hold up at the merchant level, and is it the same story as Q4?
      Grain: one row per merchant (tenant)
      Columns:
      - merchant name
      - vertical
      - refund rate Q3 2025 (%)
      - refund rate H1 2025 baseline (%)
      - change vs own baseline (percentage points)
      - refund amount Q3 2025 (EUR)
      - order count Q3 2025
      Details: Same method as last night's Q4 refund-spike report: refund rate = 100 * (succeeded payment_refunds amount, EUR, processed_at in quarter) / (captured payments amount, EUR, captured_at in quarter, status in 'captured','partially_refunded','refunded'), attributed to merchant via tenant_id on payments/payment_refunds directly. Q3 2025 = 2025-07-01 to 2025-10-01; H1 2025 baseline = 2025-01-01 to 2025-07-01. Include only merchants with at least 10 orders in Q3 2025. Order by change vs own baseline descending, tie-break by refund amount Q3 2025 descending. I specifically want to see where OfficeHub Nordic and any Sports & Outdoor merchants land in this ranking, and whether the same merchants appear here as in the Q4 version of this report.
      
      Check your query with the warehouse's dry_run tool, then hand it in with submit.
    • Omar calls dry_run
      WITH q3_refunds AS (
        SELECT pr.tenant_id,
               SUM(pr.amount / er.rate) AS refund_amount_eur
        FROM payment_refunds pr
        JOIN exchange_rates er
          ON er.base_code = 'EUR'
         AND er.quote_code = pr.currency_code
         AND er.as_of = pr.processed_at::date
        WHERE pr.status = 'succeeded'
          AND pr.processed_at >= DATE '2025-07-01'
          AND pr.processed_at < DATE '2025-10-01'
        GROUP BY pr.tenant_id
      ),
      q3_payments AS (
        SELECT p.tenant_id,
               SUM(p.amount / er.rate) AS captured_amount_eur
        FROM payments p
        JOIN exchange_rates er
          ON er.base_code = 'EUR'
         AND er.quote_code = p.currency_code
         AND er.as_of = p.captured_at::date
        WHERE p.status IN ('captured','partially_refunded','refunded')
          AND p.captured_at >= DATE '2025-07-01'
          AND p.captured_at < DATE '2025-10-01'
        GROUP BY p.tenant_id
      ),
      h1_refunds AS (
        SELECT pr.tenant_id,
               SUM(pr.amount / er.rate) AS refund_amount_eur
        FROM payment_refunds pr
        JOIN exchange_rates er
          ON er.base_code = 'EUR'
         AND er.quote_code = pr.currency_code
         AND er.as_of = pr.processed_at::date
        WHERE pr.status = 'succeeded'
          AND pr.processed_at >= DATE '2025-01-01'
          AND pr.processed_at < DATE '2025-07-01'
        GROUP BY pr.tenant_id
      ),
      h1_payments AS (
        SELECT p.tenant_id,
               SUM(p.amount / er.rate) AS captured_amount_eur
        FROM payments p
        JOIN exchange_rates er
          ON er.base_code = 'EUR'
         AND er.quote_code = p.currency_code
         AND er.as_of = p.captured_at::date
        WHERE p.status IN ('captured','partially_refunded','refunded')
          AND p.captured_at >= DATE '2025-01-01'
          AND p.captured_at < DATE '2025-07-01'
        GROUP BY p.tenant_id
      ),
      q3_orders AS (
        SELECT tenant_id, COUNT(*) AS order_count
        FROM orders
        WHERE placed_at >= DATE '2025-07-01'
          AND placed_at < DATE '2025-10-01'
        GROUP BY tenant_id
      )
      SELECT
        t.name AS merchant_name,
        t.industry AS vertical,
        ROUND(100.0 * COALESCE(qr.refund_amount_eur,0) / NULLIF(qp.captured_amount_eur,0), 2) AS refund_rate_q3_pct,
        ROUND(100.0 * COALESCE(hr.refund_amount_eur,0) / NULLIF(hp.captured_amount_eur,0), 2) AS refund_rate_h1_baseline_pct,
        ROUND(
          (100.0 * COALESCE(qr.refund_amount_eur,0) / NULLIF(qp.captured_amount_eur,0))
          - (100.0 * COALESCE(hr.refund_amount_eur,0) / NULLIF(hp.captured_amount_eur,0))
        , 2) AS change_vs_baseline_pp,
        ROUND(COALESCE(qr.refund_amount_eur,0), 2) AS refund_amount_q3_eur,
        qo.order_count AS order_count_q3
      FROM q3_orders qo
      JOIN tenants t ON t.id = qo.tenant_id
      LEFT JOIN q3_refunds qr ON qr.tenant_id = qo.tenant_id
      LEFT JOIN q3_payments qp ON qp.tenant_id = qo.tenant_id
      LEFT JOIN h1_refunds hr ON hr.tenant_id = qo.tenant_id
      LEFT JOIN h1_payments hp ON hp.tenant_id = qo.tenant_id
      WHERE qo.order_count >= 10
      ORDER BY change_vs_baseline_pp DESC NULLS LAST, refund_amount_q3_eur DESC, merchant_name ASC
    • The warehouse answers
      STATUS: COMPILES (dry run on the empty schema, no data read)
      COLUMNS: merchant_name, vertical, refund_rate_q3_pct, refund_rate_h1_baseline_pct, change_vs_baseline_pp, refund_amount_q3_eur, order_count_q3
    • OmarQuery compiles and matches the requested grain and columns. Submitting.
    • Omar calls submit
      WITH q3_refunds AS (
        SELECT pr.tenant_id,
               SUM(pr.amount / er.rate) AS refund_amount_eur
        FROM payment_refunds pr
        JOIN exchange_rates er
          ON er.base_code = 'EUR'
         AND er.quote_code = pr.currency_code
         AND er.as_of = pr.processed_at::date
        WHERE pr.status = 'succeeded'
          AND pr.processed_at >= DATE '2025-07-01'
          AND pr.processed_at < DATE '2025-10-01'
        GROUP BY pr.tenant_id
      ),
      q3_payments AS (
        SELECT p.tenant_id,
               SUM(p.amount / er.rate) AS captured_amount_eur
        FROM payments p
        JOIN exchange_rates er
          ON er.base_code = 'EUR'
         AND er.quote_code = p.currency_code
         AND er.as_of = p.captured_at::date
        WHERE p.status IN ('captured','partially_refunded','refunded')
          AND p.captured_at >= DATE '2025-07-01'
          AND p.captured_at < DATE '2025-10-01'
        GROUP BY p.tenant_id
      ),
      h1_refunds AS (
        SELECT pr.tenant_id,
               SUM(pr.amount / er.rate) AS refund_amount_eur
        FROM payment_refunds pr
        JOIN exchange_rates er
          ON er.base_code = 'EUR'
         AND er.quote_code = pr.currency_code
         AND er.as_of = pr.processed_at::date
        WHERE pr.status = 'succeeded'
          AND pr.processed_at >= DATE '2025-01-01'
          AND pr.processed_at < DATE '2025-07-01'
        GROUP BY pr.tenant_id
      ),
      h1_payments AS (
        SELECT p.tenant_id,
               SUM(p.amount / er.rate) AS captured_amount_eur
        FROM payments p
        JOIN exchange_rates er
          ON er.base_code = 'EUR'
         AND er.quote_code = p.currency_code
         AND er.as_of = p.captured_at::date
        WHERE p.status IN ('captured','partially_refunded','refunded')
          AND p.captured_at >= DATE '2025-01-01'
          AND p.captured_at < DATE '2025-07-01'
        GROUP BY p.tenant_id
      ),
      q3_orders AS (
        SELECT tenant_id, COUNT(*) AS order_count
        FROM orders
        WHERE placed_at >= DATE '2025-07-01'
          AND placed_at < DATE '2025-10-01'
        GROUP BY tenant_id
      )
      SELECT
        t.name AS merchant_name,
        t.industry AS vertical,
        ROUND(100.0 * COALESCE(qr.refund_amount_eur,0) / NULLIF(qp.captured_amount_eur,0), 2) AS refund_rate_q3_pct,
        ROUND(100.0 * COALESCE(hr.refund_amount_eur,0) / NULLIF(hp.captured_amount_eur,0), 2) AS refund_rate_h1_baseline_pct,
        ROUND(
          (100.0 * COALESCE(qr.refund_amount_eur,0) / NULLIF(qp.captured_amount_eur,0))
          - (100.0 * COALESCE(hr.refund_amount_eur,0) / NULLIF(hp.captured_amount_eur,0))
        , 2) AS change_vs_baseline_pp,
        ROUND(COALESCE(qr.refund_amount_eur,0), 2) AS refund_amount_q3_eur,
        qo.order_count AS order_count_q3
      FROM q3_orders qo
      JOIN tenants t ON t.id = qo.tenant_id
      LEFT JOIN q3_refunds qr ON qr.tenant_id = qo.tenant_id
      LEFT JOIN q3_payments qp ON qp.tenant_id = qo.tenant_id
      LEFT JOIN h1_refunds hr ON hr.tenant_id = qo.tenant_id
      LEFT JOIN h1_payments hp ON hp.tenant_id = qo.tenant_id
      WHERE qo.order_count >= 10
      ORDER BY change_vs_baseline_pp DESC NULLS LAST, refund_amount_q3_eur DESC, merchant_name ASC
    • The warehouse answers
      Submitted to tonight's batch. Your work on this request is done.
    • OmarSubmitted. Summary of what was built: - **Grain:** one row per merchant (tenant), restricted to merchants with ≥10 orders placed in Q3 2025. - **Method:** refund rate = 100 × (succeeded `payment_refunds`, EUR-converted, `processed_at` in quarter) ÷ (captured/partially_refunded/refunded `payments`, EUR-converted, `captured_at` in quarter), attributed by `tenant_id` directly on those two tables — same approach as the Q4 report, applied to Q3 2025 vs. the H1 2025 baseline. - **FX:** each amount divided by the same-day `EUR→currency` rate from `exchange_rates`. - **Columns:** merchant name, vertical (`tenants.industry`), Q3 2025 refund rate %, H1 2025 baseline rate %, change in percentage points, Q3 refund amount (EUR), Q3 order count. - **Order:** change vs. baseline descending, tie-break by Q3 refund amount descending, then name for determinism. Noted in the submit comment: "vertical" is sourced from `tenants.industry` (no separate vertical field exists), and the ≥10-orders filter uses the count of orders placed in Q3 2025.